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Climate Shock: The Economic Consequences of a Hotter Planet
Posted by EcoWatch: Michael Mann on September 11th, 2015
EcoWatch: One of the most under-appreciated aspects of the climate change problem is the so-called "fat tail" of risk. In short, the likelihood of very large impacts is greater than we would expect under typical statistical assumptions.
We are used to thinking about likelihoods and probabilities in terms of the familiar "normal" distribution--otherwise known as the "bell curve." It looks like this:
Roughly 68 percent of the area falls within the region bounded by 1 standard deviation below (-1 sigma)...
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NOAA: There Has Been No ‘Pause’ or ‘Hiatus’ in Global Warming
Posted by EcoWatch: Michael Mann on June 5th, 2015
EcoWatch: Just out in Science is a new article by Tom Karl of NOAA`s National Climatic Data Center and colleagues driving another stake through the heart of the supposed “hiatus” or “pause,” i.e. what I like to call the “Faux Pause.”
I expect this article will be attacked by climate change deniers who are unhappy to see the demise of a narrative they helped frame, a narrative that arguably took hold due in part to the “seepage” of contrarian framing into mainstream climate science discourse.
Because...